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Franchise opportunities

Sample cash flow forecast

in association with Lloyds TSB

The following cash flow example is not intended to represent any given franchise system, but is to illustrate the timing and extent of the finance that might be needed when launching a new system. A ‘worst-case’ scenario has also been included to convey an indication of the additional finance that would be needed to allow the system to continue until it reached ‘break-even’.

At the outset, it has been assumed that the owners invested £100,000 in the system and also obtained a 5 year loan of £150,000. If everything goes as expected, then a peak borrowing requirement of a further £199,000 will be needed. Alternatively, if the ‘worst-case’ outcome materialised, then the peak requirement will rise to £345,000.

Other Assumptions

  • Franchisee initial fee £8,500 plus VAT.
  • Franchisee ongoing fees (management service fees) 7% of turnover.
  • Franchisee sales turnover:
    • Year 1 = £100k
    • Year 2 = £120k
    • Year 3 = £140k
    • Year 4 = £155k
    • Year 5 = £165k
    • Year 6 = £175k
    • Year 7 = £185k
  • All franchisees open at the start of each year, rather than the usual phased openings.
  • Variation for worst case, income –10%; costs +10% from Year 2 onwards. No franchisee opened in Year 1.
  • Two year capital repayment holiday on 5 year bank loan.
  • No failures of franchisees.
  • All figures rounded to nearest £1,000 for clarity.

-) ) Worst case scenario (see accompanying notes for explanation)
Expected Scenario Set-up period Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7
Franchisees recruited - 1 4 8 13 15 11 8
Total franchisees - 1 5 13 26 41 52 60
Receipts - - - - - - - -
Franchise fees (initial) - £10k £40k £80k £130k £150k £110k £80k
Management service fees (from franchisees) - £7k £15 £99k £208k £348k £476k £591k
Owners’ share capital £100k - - - - - - -
Bank loan (5 year term) £150k - - - - - - -
Total receipts (A) £250k £17k £55k £179k £338k £498k £586k £671k
Payments - - - - - - - -
Capital expenditure £35k - - - - - - -
Development expenditure £150k - - - - - - -
Franchisee recruitment costs £3k £20k £24k £39k £45k £33k £24k £24k
Loan repayments (24 month capital repayment holiday) - - - £50k £50k £50k - -
Loan interest - £15k £15k £10k £5k £2k - -
Direct costs - £4k £20k £52k £104k £164k £205k £240k
Staff costs - £44k £49k £71k £74k £79k £84k £104k
Overheads - £20k £22k £30k £31k £32k £32k £40k
ACT (Advance Corporation Tax) - - - - - - - £20k
VAT - (£26k) £6k £12k £20k £23k £17k £12k
Professional fees - £2k £4k £8k £13k £15k £11k £8k
Dividends - - - - - - - £100k
Overdraft interest - - £4k £6k £7k £5k £3k -
Total payments (B) £188k £79k £144k £278k £349k £403k £376k £548k
Net cash flow (A) – (B) £62k (£62k) (£89k) (£99k) (£11k) £95k £210k £123k
Opening balance - £62k £0k (£89k) £188k) (£199k) (£104k) £106k
Bank balance credit (overdraft) £62k £0k (£89k) (£188k) (£199k) (£104k) £106k 229k
Worst Case Scenario
(see accompanying notes for explanation)
Total receipts (C) £250k - £50k £161k £304k £448k £527k £604k
Total payments (D) £188k £80k £156k £305k £381k £439k £410k £436k
Net cash flow (C) – (D) £62k (£80k) £106k) (£144k) (£77k) £9k £117k £168k
Opening balance - £62k (£18k) (£124k) (£268k) (£345k) (£336k) (£219k)
Bank balance credit (overdraft) £62k (£18k) (£124k) (£268k) (£345k) (£336k) (£219k) (£51k)